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Burgiss Analytics

Capital Reserve Forecasts For Buyout Portfolios


To address the shortcomings of traditional cashflow models, we've created a new model that forecasts the capital reserve required to meet capital calls for a portfolio.  The report aids limited partners by:

  • Providing top-line forecasts which can be incorporated into the capital budgeting process
  • Enabling LPs to determine how much capital they should have at the ready to meet capital calls
  • Including capital reserve forecasts for a series of different portfolio constructions

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Burgiss Working Paper

Modeling Cash flows For Private Capital Funds

The first of two papers focused on predicting cash flows for private capital funds. In this paper, we start by discussing the characteristics of cash-flow data that make these predictions challenging, and then examine several models for expected contributions and distributions, and evaluate their performance, both in-sample and out-of-sample.

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Burgiss Working Paper

Budgeting For Capital Calls: A VaR-Inspired Approach 

The results in the first paper showed that contributions and uncalled capital, in addition to age, are a useful predictor of future cash flows. Additionally, we demonstrate that the approach outlined by Takahashi and Alexander underperforms our data-driven models. In this second paper, we deepen this examination, focusing our attention on budgeting for future capital calls.

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